2017 economic indicators have shown that China's economy
continued in the fourth quarter of 2016 since the steady warming trend,
including the business community, consumers and scholars, including the
community on the economic situation in 2017 optimistic about the degree
of improvement. 2017 the economy started a good start to promote China's
economy into the transformation and upgrading of the critical time
window, the opportunity fleeting, we need to take advantage of the
opportunity to increase the supply side of the structural reform to
promote the reform and transformation, Increased motivation, economic
stability to further improve such a positive feedback mechanism to be
established.
First, the good start of the economy, to achieve the annual
growth target of 6.5% laid a solid foundation, but also to speed up the
transformation and upgrading to win a rare opportunity. From the future
economic trends, the second quarter is expected to continue the growth
of inertia in the first quarter, the growth rate is higher than the
expected target of 6.5%. The second half of the economic downturn may
increase the pressure, one by the international economic and trade
environment changes and the impact of base year higher, exports may have
a certain decline; Second, part of the line and part of the second-tier
cities in the real estate regulation and control of the economic impact
of the beginning of the economy Three, the three or four lines of urban
real estate inventory pressure may increase, the economy has a certain
drag; Third, PPI has accumulated no small increase, may peak down, the
price changes to a certain extent, will affect business confidence; By
the car purchase tax by half and other factors, the second half of last
year, rapid growth in automobile production and sales, the second half
of this year, the greater the possibility of car production and sales
down. However, despite this, due to the relatively strong infrastructure
investment support, there are positive fiscal policy and stable neutral
monetary policy support, consumer structure upgrades and industrial
structure to promote the promotion of economic growth is unlikely to be a
big decline, The first half and the second half of the average, to
achieve full year expected target to grasp a larger. This objectively
reduces the difficulty of steady growth and coordination between
structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, or, more precisely,
provides a larger space for the latter.
At the same time, we should also see that a series of changes in
the external environment also requires us to accelerate the pace of
economic restructuring and upgrading. First, the constraints of
resources and environment more significant, as one of the five
development concept of green development, the urgent need to get people
to see tangible results to enhance social confidence, so that green
development really become a habit, not just slogans The Second, the
international trade inside and outside the environment is undergoing
profound changes, labor costs continue to rise is weakening the
international competitiveness of labor-intensive products in China, 2016
Renminbi devaluation is only temporarily alleviate this phenomenon, but
did not reverse this trend; The new government's foreign economic and
trade policy changes from the envisaged to the implementation of the
landing will be a period of time, is likely to start from the second
half of this year, the impact on China's economy. Third, the financial
risks are still accumulating, the good start of the economy in 2017 and
product prices continued to rise, a short period of time the phenomenon
of decline in corporate leverage, but the price increase brought about
by the bar and the more perfect financial markets and enterprises
Endogenous power to promote the decline in corporate leverage is
completely different, once the price fluctuations, the risk will be
reproduced, and even more serious. The property market bubble risk is
controlled under a very special administrative intervention for a short
period of time, but because of the rise in the past 20 years -
regulation - and then rise - and then the regulation has almost cured
the community such a cycle of expectations, the risk of bubbles and Not
far away, but by the snow, once the time is ripe or may be detonated.
Therefore, we should cherish the current hard-won, fleeting
economic transformation and upgrading of the critical time window, from
various aspects of increased supply side of the reform efforts. This is
like a car, there are many problems, do not pay attention to repair may
be a big accident, but if it is uphill, can only hard to step on the gas
to say. And today the car has been on a flat road, even if not on the
throttle will not have a big downside risk, just to quickly repair the
car.
To this end, we must first deepen the understanding and
understanding of the new economic normal, to improve the economic growth
rate down tolerance, for the reform and transformation to expand the
larger space. The view that China still needs to maintain rapid growth
is mainly based on the following considerations: for example, to ensure
the stability of employment; for example, to maintain the growth of
government financial resources to ensure that public expenditure has
sufficient ammunition; for example, to achieve growth benefits to avoid
the relevant financial risks and many more. So what is the reason for
the above-mentioned relatively high growth to change?
First, look at the employment situation. Since 2012, China's
economic growth has been in a moderate and slow down the process, but
did not appear during the financial crisis occurred in the larger area
of unemployment. In fact, since 2016, the survey unemployment rate and
even the overall trend of decline, the first quarter of this year
continue to continue such a trend. There is an increase in the
proportion of services to expand the employment capacity to enhance the
factors, more importantly, the Chinese population has been in 2012 since
the nature of the changes have occurred, the annual labor population
decreased by almost 300 million people in 2015 reduced by nearly 500
million people , This trend is still continuing. Therefore, we can not
use the relationship between economic growth and employment in the past
to demand today's economic growth. In fact, because the labor population
is absolutely reduced by millions of people each year, the employment
problem is mainly concentrated in the urbanization process of urban
population employment problem. From the situation in recent years, the
annual increase in urban population in 20 million or so, little change,
not continuous growth, then the corresponding GDP, should be concerned
about the GDP growth rather than growth. 2016 GDP growth in 2010
according to constant price for the first time exceeded 4 trillion yuan,
more than the previous high of 2010. From the current situation, in
2017 to achieve economic growth of 6.5% of the target to grasp the
larger, when the GDP growth is expected to close to 4.2 trillion (2010
constant price), fully meet the new employment needs. And so on, if the
economy in 2018 still maintain such an economic growth, that is to say
incremental increase to 4.3 trillion or so, the economic growth rate of
only 6.3% can be achieved.
Second, look at the growth of government financial resources. As a
result of the long-term government spending plate larger, faster
growth, the rapid growth of the economy rely on. Some local governments
even have a serious dependence on land finance. There is a causal
relationship, that is, whether we need to maintain huge government
spending and maintain rapid economic growth, or need to further clarify
the relationship between the government and the market, further
decentralization, and thus further reduce the government's necessary
public expenditure to ease the economy Increased load? The answer is
obviously the latter.
Third, look at financial risks. With the continuous rise of
China's total economy, from the perspective of investment and currency
delivery, the unit output efficiency continues to decrease. There is a
paradox: in order to improve efficiency, or reduce the rate of decline
in efficiency, it is necessary to reduce investment and reduce money
delivery; but if so, some of the original inefficient investment
projects due to lack of follow-up investment may be a default risk The
In order to reduce the risk of group default risk, you need to maintain a
certain investment and currency delivery speed, which in turn may
further reduce the output efficiency, the formation of a vicious circle.
From the above three factors, employment on the economic growth
requirements have been reduced. From a financial point of view, the
future trend is still to change the government function, reduce the
necessary share of government spending, the transition period of
expenditure pressure can be through appropriate debt expansion and tax
reform to solve, and not necessarily need to maintain long-term
inefficient growth. From the perspective of avoiding financial risks,
such a vicious cycle of expansion of the cycle is clearly not
sustainable, long pain as short pain, as long as the risk control in the
local, so that sore carbuncle exposed and try to clear than clutching
strong.
At present, the time to achieve a fundamental transformation has
matured. First, after many years of publicity and guidance, as well as
the profound changes in the objective environment of the impact of all
for all, the whole society on the transformation of the necessity and
urgency of the increasingly convergence; Second, the current wave of new
technological revolution to bring China once again in the industry Such
as in the field of communications, sharing the economic field, part of
the new materials and high-speed rail transit field of international
voice is being formed to promote the overall innovation-driven power
accumulation and enhancement; Third, the current per capita GDP In the
vicinity of $ 8,000, according to the economic law in the consumption
structure to upgrade the accelerated period, people focus on the spirit,
high quality, personalized consumer products and services show a rapid
growth in demand from the demand side to guide the supply of the
revolution.
Therefore, the appropriate increase in economic growth down the
tolerance, unswervingly promote the "three to one down one" as the
starting point of the supply side of the structural reform, is like the
forward has been more difficult to recover the fist, savings energy The
Then, once again punch will be more powerful, will be more accurate and
effective, for the supply side of the structural reform to provide
greater space for maneuvers.
From the production capacity, 2016 to production capacity in some
areas achieved initial results, but must be soberly aware that the past
based on the rapid growth of the export and real estate market
formation of the production capacity in the current situation after the
trend of change, overcapacity The situation is still relatively grim.
Over the past year to work to work, to a certain extent rely on the
administrative means. Central economic work conference proposed to
continue to promote the iron and steel metallurgy, nonferrous metals,
cemented carbide,
coal industry to resolve excess capacity at the same time, with the
market, the rule of law to do a good job of other industries to work
excess capacity to work, such as further strengthening environmental
standards, And actively promote the monopoly of the industry reform, to
promote the role of factors in the market under the more freedom of
movement and voluntary combination, we can say that the work will be
carried out and implement the five major development concepts to promote
the upgrading of industrial structure better together, both temporary
and root. Particularly noteworthy is that the government work report
proposed to reduce the steel production capacity of about 50 million
tons, out of coal production capacity of more than 150 million tons, not
only a number of objectives and tasks, more importantly, behind the
layout optimization and structural upgrading, rather than A
one-size-fits-all pressure. There is a particular need to emphasize the
idea of a national chess.
From the inventory to see, in the real estate to the inventory
and urbanization on the basis of the combination, perhaps also from the
following two aspects to increase the intensity of inventory: First, in
actual operation as much as possible to improve the protection of
housing currency The proportion of resettlement, so that the limited
financial support of the state not only meet the needs of the need to
resettle the needs of the population, but also to effectively resolve
the inventory of commercial housing, but also to avoid relatively low
income groups concentrated living may lead to social problems; the
second is to make full use of pension demand Rapid growth opportunities,
try to vigorously develop the old-age industry and commercial housing
to the organic combination of inventory, which for those adjacent to the
densely populated cities of the three or four lines of the city, the
development of space is huge. These two aspects, can be limited to
support the country's housing and pension funds play a four-pronged
leverage, so that inventory work to get more market response.
From the perspective of leverage, the 2016 Central Economic Work
Conference and the 2017 Government Work Report will reduce the corporate
leverage as a top priority, and indeed grasp the key to the problem,
first, because the corporate leverage is very obvious, and wide , The
more difficult to control the more delay; Second, micro-corporate credit
is generally lower than the government credit, more likely because of
default caused by social risks. In fact, in the process of production to
resolutely deal with zombie enterprises, in the process of deleveraging
to effectively reduce the micro-enterprise leverage, it is the
aforementioned long pain as short pain, let the sore carbuncle exposed
and try to clear the concrete manifestation. In the long run, leveraging
can reduce the need for liquidity in the economy, but short-term
leverage may also increase liquidity, so in the next year or two, the
appropriate increase in government leverage, especially the central
government leverage, Leverage rate may be necessary.
From the cost reduction, it is necessary to take into account
the improvement of the supply environment, to stimulate the endogenous
power of micro-enterprises, but also forward-looking to take into
account the US Trump government tax cuts on the impact of China's
capital spill, so in 2017 the task is difficult urgent. Reduce the cost
of short-term seem to be in the reduction of national and local
financial resources, increase government spending, but in the long run
is indeed the only way to revitalize the real economy. The 2017
government work report put forward a number of initiatives to reduce
costs, to be resolutely implemented, and should be China's largest tax
value-added tax rate cut, including the most high-grade 17% VAT rate
down, do some forward-looking research and Stress test, for the future
supply side reform to further expand the space.
From the shortcomings to see, on the one hand we are in the
history of the short debts, make up with the rapid economic growth
uncoordinated short board, such as resource and environment carrying
bottleneck highlights, such as poverty alleviation task is still
arduous, such as innovation and international Competitiveness needs to
be strengthened, and so on; the other hand, make up the shortcomings can
also alleviate the reform and transformation of the short term economic
growth brought pains, because the input of shortcomings is also the
driving force of economic growth. It is particularly noteworthy that, in
the same time, to increase the strength of short board, such as poverty
alleviation to increase the promotion of poverty in the region to
change the concept of population, education level, self-help ability to
enhance the support, this Perhaps more important than the increase in
income, of course, more difficult.
