2017 economic indicators have shown that China's economy
continued in the fourth quarter of 2016 since the steady warming trend,
including the business community, consumers and scholars, including the
community on the economic situation in 2017 optimistic about the degree
of improvement. 2017 the economy started a good start to promote China's
economy into the transformation and upgrading of the critical time
window, the opportunity fleeting, we need to take advantage of the
opportunity to increase the supply side of the structural reform to
promote the reform and transformation, Increased motivation, economic
stability to further improve such a positive feedback mechanism to be
established.
First, the good start of the economy, to achieve the annual growth target of 6.5% laid a solid foundation, but also to speed up the transformation and upgrading to win a rare opportunity. From the future economic trends, the second quarter is expected to continue the growth of inertia in the first quarter, the growth rate is higher than the expected target of 6.5%. The second half of the economic downturn may increase the pressure, one by the international economic and trade environment changes and the impact of base year higher, exports may have a certain decline; Second, part of the line and part of the second-tier cities in the real estate regulation and control of the economic impact of the beginning of the economy Three, the three or four lines of urban real estate inventory pressure may increase, the economy has a certain drag; Third, PPI has accumulated no small increase, may peak down, the price changes to a certain extent, will affect business confidence; By the car purchase tax by half and other factors, the second half of last year, rapid growth in automobile production and sales, the second half of this year, the greater the possibility of car production and sales down. However, despite this, due to the relatively strong infrastructure investment support, there are positive fiscal policy and stable neutral monetary policy support, consumer structure upgrades and industrial structure to promote the promotion of economic growth is unlikely to be a big decline, The first half and the second half of the average, to achieve full year expected target to grasp a larger. This objectively reduces the difficulty of steady growth and coordination between structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, or, more precisely, provides a larger space for the latter.
At the same time, we should also see that a series of changes in the external environment also requires us to accelerate the pace of economic restructuring and upgrading. First, the constraints of resources and environment more significant, as one of the five development concept of green development, the urgent need to get people to see tangible results to enhance social confidence, so that green development really become a habit, not just slogans The Second, the international trade inside and outside the environment is undergoing profound changes, labor costs continue to rise is weakening the international competitiveness of labor-intensive products in China, 2016 Renminbi devaluation is only temporarily alleviate this phenomenon, but did not reverse this trend; The new government's foreign economic and trade policy changes from the envisaged to the implementation of the landing will be a period of time, is likely to start from the second half of this year, the impact on China's economy. Third, the financial risks are still accumulating, the good start of the economy in 2017 and product prices continued to rise, a short period of time the phenomenon of decline in corporate leverage, but the price increase brought about by the bar and the more perfect financial markets and enterprises Endogenous power to promote the decline in corporate leverage is completely different, once the price fluctuations, the risk will be reproduced, and even more serious. The property market bubble risk is controlled under a very special administrative intervention for a short period of time, but because of the rise in the past 20 years - regulation - and then rise - and then the regulation has almost cured the community such a cycle of expectations, the risk of bubbles and Not far away, but by the snow, once the time is ripe or may be detonated.
Therefore, we should cherish the current hard-won, fleeting economic transformation and upgrading of the critical time window, from various aspects of increased supply side of the reform efforts. This is like a car, there are many problems, do not pay attention to repair may be a big accident, but if it is uphill, can only hard to step on the gas to say. And today the car has been on a flat road, even if not on the throttle will not have a big downside risk, just to quickly repair the car.
To this end, we must first deepen the understanding and understanding of the new economic normal, to improve the economic growth rate down tolerance, for the reform and transformation to expand the larger space. The view that China still needs to maintain rapid growth is mainly based on the following considerations: for example, to ensure the stability of employment; for example, to maintain the growth of government financial resources to ensure that public expenditure has sufficient ammunition; for example, to achieve growth benefits to avoid the relevant financial risks and many more. So what is the reason for the above-mentioned relatively high growth to change?
First, look at the employment situation. Since 2012, China's economic growth has been in a moderate and slow down the process, but did not appear during the financial crisis occurred in the larger area of unemployment. In fact, since 2016, the survey unemployment rate and even the overall trend of decline, the first quarter of this year continue to continue such a trend. There is an increase in the proportion of services to expand the employment capacity to enhance the factors, more importantly, the Chinese population has been in 2012 since the nature of the changes have occurred, the annual labor population decreased by almost 300 million people in 2015 reduced by nearly 500 million people , This trend is still continuing. Therefore, we can not use the relationship between economic growth and employment in the past to demand today's economic growth. In fact, because the labor population is absolutely reduced by millions of people each year, the employment problem is mainly concentrated in the urbanization process of urban population employment problem. From the situation in recent years, the annual increase in urban population in 20 million or so, little change, not continuous growth, then the corresponding GDP, should be concerned about the GDP growth rather than growth. 2016 GDP growth in 2010 according to constant price for the first time exceeded 4 trillion yuan, more than the previous high of 2010. From the current situation, in 2017 to achieve economic growth of 6.5% of the target to grasp the larger, when the GDP growth is expected to close to 4.2 trillion (2010 constant price), fully meet the new employment needs. And so on, if the economy in 2018 still maintain such an economic growth, that is to say incremental increase to 4.3 trillion or so, the economic growth rate of only 6.3% can be achieved.
Second, look at the growth of government financial resources. As a result of the long-term government spending plate larger, faster growth, the rapid growth of the economy rely on. Some local governments even have a serious dependence on land finance. There is a causal relationship, that is, whether we need to maintain huge government spending and maintain rapid economic growth, or need to further clarify the relationship between the government and the market, further decentralization, and thus further reduce the government's necessary public expenditure to ease the economy Increased load? The answer is obviously the latter.
Third, look at financial risks. With the continuous rise of China's total economy, from the perspective of investment and currency delivery, the unit output efficiency continues to decrease. There is a paradox: in order to improve efficiency, or reduce the rate of decline in efficiency, it is necessary to reduce investment and reduce money delivery; but if so, some of the original inefficient investment projects due to lack of follow-up investment may be a default risk The In order to reduce the risk of group default risk, you need to maintain a certain investment and currency delivery speed, which in turn may further reduce the output efficiency, the formation of a vicious circle.
From the above three factors, employment on the economic growth requirements have been reduced. From a financial point of view, the future trend is still to change the government function, reduce the necessary share of government spending, the transition period of expenditure pressure can be through appropriate debt expansion and tax reform to solve, and not necessarily need to maintain long-term inefficient growth. From the perspective of avoiding financial risks, such a vicious cycle of expansion of the cycle is clearly not sustainable, long pain as short pain, as long as the risk control in the local, so that sore carbuncle exposed and try to clear than clutching strong.
At present, the time to achieve a fundamental transformation has matured. First, after many years of publicity and guidance, as well as the profound changes in the objective environment of the impact of all for all, the whole society on the transformation of the necessity and urgency of the increasingly convergence; Second, the current wave of new technological revolution to bring China once again in the industry Such as in the field of communications, sharing the economic field, part of the new materials and high-speed rail transit field of international voice is being formed to promote the overall innovation-driven power accumulation and enhancement; Third, the current per capita GDP In the vicinity of $ 8,000, according to the economic law in the consumption structure to upgrade the accelerated period, people focus on the spirit, high quality, personalized consumer products and services show a rapid growth in demand from the demand side to guide the supply of the revolution.
Therefore, the appropriate increase in economic growth down the tolerance, unswervingly promote the "three to one down one" as the starting point of the supply side of the structural reform, is like the forward has been more difficult to recover the fist, savings energy The Then, once again punch will be more powerful, will be more accurate and effective, for the supply side of the structural reform to provide greater space for maneuvers.
From the production capacity, 2016 to production capacity in some areas achieved initial results, but must be soberly aware that the past based on the rapid growth of the export and real estate market formation of the production capacity in the current situation after the trend of change, overcapacity The situation is still relatively grim. Over the past year to work to work, to a certain extent rely on the administrative means. Central economic work conference proposed to continue to promote the iron and steel metallurgy, nonferrous metals,cemented carbide, coal industry to resolve excess capacity at the same time, with the market, the rule of law to do a good job of other industries to work excess capacity to work, such as further strengthening environmental standards, And actively promote the monopoly of the industry reform, to promote the role of factors in the market under the more freedom of movement and voluntary combination, we can say that the work will be carried out and implement the five major development concepts to promote the upgrading of industrial structure better together, both temporary and root. Particularly noteworthy is that the government work report proposed to reduce the steel production capacity of about 50 million tons, out of coal production capacity of more than 150 million tons, not only a number of objectives and tasks, more importantly, behind the layout optimization and structural upgrading, rather than A one-size-fits-all pressure. There is a particular need to emphasize the idea of a national chess.
From the inventory to see, in the real estate to the inventory and urbanization on the basis of the combination, perhaps also from the following two aspects to increase the intensity of inventory: First, in actual operation as much as possible to improve the protection of housing currency The proportion of resettlement, so that the limited financial support of the state not only meet the needs of the need to resettle the needs of the population, but also to effectively resolve the inventory of commercial housing, but also to avoid relatively low income groups concentrated living may lead to social problems; the second is to make full use of pension demand Rapid growth opportunities, try to vigorously develop the old-age industry and commercial housing to the organic combination of inventory, which for those adjacent to the densely populated cities of the three or four lines of the city, the development of space is huge. These two aspects, can be limited to support the country's housing and pension funds play a four-pronged leverage, so that inventory work to get more market response.
From the perspective of leverage, the 2016 Central Economic Work Conference and the 2017 Government Work Report will reduce the corporate leverage as a top priority, and indeed grasp the key to the problem, first, because the corporate leverage is very obvious, and wide , The more difficult to control the more delay; Second, micro-corporate credit is generally lower than the government credit, more likely because of default caused by social risks. In fact, in the process of production to resolutely deal with zombie enterprises, in the process of deleveraging to effectively reduce the micro-enterprise leverage, it is the aforementioned long pain as short pain, let the sore carbuncle exposed and try to clear the concrete manifestation. In the long run, leveraging can reduce the need for liquidity in the economy, but short-term leverage may also increase liquidity, so in the next year or two, the appropriate increase in government leverage, especially the central government leverage, Leverage rate may be necessary.
From the cost reduction, it is necessary to take into account the improvement of the supply environment, to stimulate the endogenous power of micro-enterprises, but also forward-looking to take into account the US Trump government tax cuts on the impact of China's capital spill, so in 2017 the task is difficult urgent. Reduce the cost of short-term seem to be in the reduction of national and local financial resources, increase government spending, but in the long run is indeed the only way to revitalize the real economy. The 2017 government work report put forward a number of initiatives to reduce costs, to be resolutely implemented, and should be China's largest tax value-added tax rate cut, including the most high-grade 17% VAT rate down, do some forward-looking research and Stress test, for the future supply side reform to further expand the space.
From the shortcomings to see, on the one hand we are in the history of the short debts, make up with the rapid economic growth uncoordinated short board, such as resource and environment carrying bottleneck highlights, such as poverty alleviation task is still arduous, such as innovation and international Competitiveness needs to be strengthened, and so on; the other hand, make up the shortcomings can also alleviate the reform and transformation of the short term economic growth brought pains, because the input of shortcomings is also the driving force of economic growth. It is particularly noteworthy that, in the same time, to increase the strength of short board, such as poverty alleviation to increase the promotion of poverty in the region to change the concept of population, education level, self-help ability to enhance the support, this Perhaps more important than the increase in income, of course, more difficult.
First, the good start of the economy, to achieve the annual growth target of 6.5% laid a solid foundation, but also to speed up the transformation and upgrading to win a rare opportunity. From the future economic trends, the second quarter is expected to continue the growth of inertia in the first quarter, the growth rate is higher than the expected target of 6.5%. The second half of the economic downturn may increase the pressure, one by the international economic and trade environment changes and the impact of base year higher, exports may have a certain decline; Second, part of the line and part of the second-tier cities in the real estate regulation and control of the economic impact of the beginning of the economy Three, the three or four lines of urban real estate inventory pressure may increase, the economy has a certain drag; Third, PPI has accumulated no small increase, may peak down, the price changes to a certain extent, will affect business confidence; By the car purchase tax by half and other factors, the second half of last year, rapid growth in automobile production and sales, the second half of this year, the greater the possibility of car production and sales down. However, despite this, due to the relatively strong infrastructure investment support, there are positive fiscal policy and stable neutral monetary policy support, consumer structure upgrades and industrial structure to promote the promotion of economic growth is unlikely to be a big decline, The first half and the second half of the average, to achieve full year expected target to grasp a larger. This objectively reduces the difficulty of steady growth and coordination between structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, or, more precisely, provides a larger space for the latter.
At the same time, we should also see that a series of changes in the external environment also requires us to accelerate the pace of economic restructuring and upgrading. First, the constraints of resources and environment more significant, as one of the five development concept of green development, the urgent need to get people to see tangible results to enhance social confidence, so that green development really become a habit, not just slogans The Second, the international trade inside and outside the environment is undergoing profound changes, labor costs continue to rise is weakening the international competitiveness of labor-intensive products in China, 2016 Renminbi devaluation is only temporarily alleviate this phenomenon, but did not reverse this trend; The new government's foreign economic and trade policy changes from the envisaged to the implementation of the landing will be a period of time, is likely to start from the second half of this year, the impact on China's economy. Third, the financial risks are still accumulating, the good start of the economy in 2017 and product prices continued to rise, a short period of time the phenomenon of decline in corporate leverage, but the price increase brought about by the bar and the more perfect financial markets and enterprises Endogenous power to promote the decline in corporate leverage is completely different, once the price fluctuations, the risk will be reproduced, and even more serious. The property market bubble risk is controlled under a very special administrative intervention for a short period of time, but because of the rise in the past 20 years - regulation - and then rise - and then the regulation has almost cured the community such a cycle of expectations, the risk of bubbles and Not far away, but by the snow, once the time is ripe or may be detonated.
Therefore, we should cherish the current hard-won, fleeting economic transformation and upgrading of the critical time window, from various aspects of increased supply side of the reform efforts. This is like a car, there are many problems, do not pay attention to repair may be a big accident, but if it is uphill, can only hard to step on the gas to say. And today the car has been on a flat road, even if not on the throttle will not have a big downside risk, just to quickly repair the car.
To this end, we must first deepen the understanding and understanding of the new economic normal, to improve the economic growth rate down tolerance, for the reform and transformation to expand the larger space. The view that China still needs to maintain rapid growth is mainly based on the following considerations: for example, to ensure the stability of employment; for example, to maintain the growth of government financial resources to ensure that public expenditure has sufficient ammunition; for example, to achieve growth benefits to avoid the relevant financial risks and many more. So what is the reason for the above-mentioned relatively high growth to change?
First, look at the employment situation. Since 2012, China's economic growth has been in a moderate and slow down the process, but did not appear during the financial crisis occurred in the larger area of unemployment. In fact, since 2016, the survey unemployment rate and even the overall trend of decline, the first quarter of this year continue to continue such a trend. There is an increase in the proportion of services to expand the employment capacity to enhance the factors, more importantly, the Chinese population has been in 2012 since the nature of the changes have occurred, the annual labor population decreased by almost 300 million people in 2015 reduced by nearly 500 million people , This trend is still continuing. Therefore, we can not use the relationship between economic growth and employment in the past to demand today's economic growth. In fact, because the labor population is absolutely reduced by millions of people each year, the employment problem is mainly concentrated in the urbanization process of urban population employment problem. From the situation in recent years, the annual increase in urban population in 20 million or so, little change, not continuous growth, then the corresponding GDP, should be concerned about the GDP growth rather than growth. 2016 GDP growth in 2010 according to constant price for the first time exceeded 4 trillion yuan, more than the previous high of 2010. From the current situation, in 2017 to achieve economic growth of 6.5% of the target to grasp the larger, when the GDP growth is expected to close to 4.2 trillion (2010 constant price), fully meet the new employment needs. And so on, if the economy in 2018 still maintain such an economic growth, that is to say incremental increase to 4.3 trillion or so, the economic growth rate of only 6.3% can be achieved.
Second, look at the growth of government financial resources. As a result of the long-term government spending plate larger, faster growth, the rapid growth of the economy rely on. Some local governments even have a serious dependence on land finance. There is a causal relationship, that is, whether we need to maintain huge government spending and maintain rapid economic growth, or need to further clarify the relationship between the government and the market, further decentralization, and thus further reduce the government's necessary public expenditure to ease the economy Increased load? The answer is obviously the latter.
Third, look at financial risks. With the continuous rise of China's total economy, from the perspective of investment and currency delivery, the unit output efficiency continues to decrease. There is a paradox: in order to improve efficiency, or reduce the rate of decline in efficiency, it is necessary to reduce investment and reduce money delivery; but if so, some of the original inefficient investment projects due to lack of follow-up investment may be a default risk The In order to reduce the risk of group default risk, you need to maintain a certain investment and currency delivery speed, which in turn may further reduce the output efficiency, the formation of a vicious circle.
From the above three factors, employment on the economic growth requirements have been reduced. From a financial point of view, the future trend is still to change the government function, reduce the necessary share of government spending, the transition period of expenditure pressure can be through appropriate debt expansion and tax reform to solve, and not necessarily need to maintain long-term inefficient growth. From the perspective of avoiding financial risks, such a vicious cycle of expansion of the cycle is clearly not sustainable, long pain as short pain, as long as the risk control in the local, so that sore carbuncle exposed and try to clear than clutching strong.
At present, the time to achieve a fundamental transformation has matured. First, after many years of publicity and guidance, as well as the profound changes in the objective environment of the impact of all for all, the whole society on the transformation of the necessity and urgency of the increasingly convergence; Second, the current wave of new technological revolution to bring China once again in the industry Such as in the field of communications, sharing the economic field, part of the new materials and high-speed rail transit field of international voice is being formed to promote the overall innovation-driven power accumulation and enhancement; Third, the current per capita GDP In the vicinity of $ 8,000, according to the economic law in the consumption structure to upgrade the accelerated period, people focus on the spirit, high quality, personalized consumer products and services show a rapid growth in demand from the demand side to guide the supply of the revolution.
Therefore, the appropriate increase in economic growth down the tolerance, unswervingly promote the "three to one down one" as the starting point of the supply side of the structural reform, is like the forward has been more difficult to recover the fist, savings energy The Then, once again punch will be more powerful, will be more accurate and effective, for the supply side of the structural reform to provide greater space for maneuvers.
From the production capacity, 2016 to production capacity in some areas achieved initial results, but must be soberly aware that the past based on the rapid growth of the export and real estate market formation of the production capacity in the current situation after the trend of change, overcapacity The situation is still relatively grim. Over the past year to work to work, to a certain extent rely on the administrative means. Central economic work conference proposed to continue to promote the iron and steel metallurgy, nonferrous metals,cemented carbide, coal industry to resolve excess capacity at the same time, with the market, the rule of law to do a good job of other industries to work excess capacity to work, such as further strengthening environmental standards, And actively promote the monopoly of the industry reform, to promote the role of factors in the market under the more freedom of movement and voluntary combination, we can say that the work will be carried out and implement the five major development concepts to promote the upgrading of industrial structure better together, both temporary and root. Particularly noteworthy is that the government work report proposed to reduce the steel production capacity of about 50 million tons, out of coal production capacity of more than 150 million tons, not only a number of objectives and tasks, more importantly, behind the layout optimization and structural upgrading, rather than A one-size-fits-all pressure. There is a particular need to emphasize the idea of a national chess.
From the inventory to see, in the real estate to the inventory and urbanization on the basis of the combination, perhaps also from the following two aspects to increase the intensity of inventory: First, in actual operation as much as possible to improve the protection of housing currency The proportion of resettlement, so that the limited financial support of the state not only meet the needs of the need to resettle the needs of the population, but also to effectively resolve the inventory of commercial housing, but also to avoid relatively low income groups concentrated living may lead to social problems; the second is to make full use of pension demand Rapid growth opportunities, try to vigorously develop the old-age industry and commercial housing to the organic combination of inventory, which for those adjacent to the densely populated cities of the three or four lines of the city, the development of space is huge. These two aspects, can be limited to support the country's housing and pension funds play a four-pronged leverage, so that inventory work to get more market response.
From the perspective of leverage, the 2016 Central Economic Work Conference and the 2017 Government Work Report will reduce the corporate leverage as a top priority, and indeed grasp the key to the problem, first, because the corporate leverage is very obvious, and wide , The more difficult to control the more delay; Second, micro-corporate credit is generally lower than the government credit, more likely because of default caused by social risks. In fact, in the process of production to resolutely deal with zombie enterprises, in the process of deleveraging to effectively reduce the micro-enterprise leverage, it is the aforementioned long pain as short pain, let the sore carbuncle exposed and try to clear the concrete manifestation. In the long run, leveraging can reduce the need for liquidity in the economy, but short-term leverage may also increase liquidity, so in the next year or two, the appropriate increase in government leverage, especially the central government leverage, Leverage rate may be necessary.
From the cost reduction, it is necessary to take into account the improvement of the supply environment, to stimulate the endogenous power of micro-enterprises, but also forward-looking to take into account the US Trump government tax cuts on the impact of China's capital spill, so in 2017 the task is difficult urgent. Reduce the cost of short-term seem to be in the reduction of national and local financial resources, increase government spending, but in the long run is indeed the only way to revitalize the real economy. The 2017 government work report put forward a number of initiatives to reduce costs, to be resolutely implemented, and should be China's largest tax value-added tax rate cut, including the most high-grade 17% VAT rate down, do some forward-looking research and Stress test, for the future supply side reform to further expand the space.
From the shortcomings to see, on the one hand we are in the history of the short debts, make up with the rapid economic growth uncoordinated short board, such as resource and environment carrying bottleneck highlights, such as poverty alleviation task is still arduous, such as innovation and international Competitiveness needs to be strengthened, and so on; the other hand, make up the shortcomings can also alleviate the reform and transformation of the short term economic growth brought pains, because the input of shortcomings is also the driving force of economic growth. It is particularly noteworthy that, in the same time, to increase the strength of short board, such as poverty alleviation to increase the promotion of poverty in the region to change the concept of population, education level, self-help ability to enhance the support, this Perhaps more important than the increase in income, of course, more difficult.
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