2017 economy "warm" start "reform spring" where to blow?

 Recently published macroeconomic data show that China's economy is still ushering in the "warm" start.

    March 1, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest data show that in February the official manufacturing PMI was 51.6%, not only for seven consecutive months in the top line, but also higher than the market expected 51.2%.

    Earlier, the January import and export figures showed that exports in renminbi increased by 15.9% year on year and 25.2% year on year. Niuzhou Securities Global Chief Economist Deng Haiqing said that even if the elimination of the history of low base factors, the actual import and export growth rate can still reach 7% and 15%.

    These good momentum to become the basis of this year's policy layout. February 28, the Central Financial Leading Group held its fifteenth meeting timely attention to the four major areas of concern: to production capacity, prevention and control of financial risks, the establishment of the real estate market to promote steady and healthy development of long-term mechanism to revitalize the manufacturing sector. This is also the market interpreted as 2017 "steady progress" of the key starting point.

    The earlier meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee has provided a flexible implementation space for these policies "commitments": "to achieve this year's economic and social development objectives and tasks, to stabilize and improve macroeconomic policies, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy And a prudent monetary policy. "

     "Where is the spring breeze?" The answer seems to be ready.

    Economic stability poised to continue to pick up

    The recovery from the manufacturing boom is the "stabilizer" of market sentiment since the beginning of the year.

    February official manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 51.6%, sub-data, domestic demand, external demand production have picked up. The same day released in February the new manufacturing PMI increased by 0.7 percentage points in January to 51.7%, also for six consecutive months to maintain the top line in the wing line. Taking into account the two PMI survey sampling range covers large state-owned enterprises and small and medium private enterprises, to some extent reflects the round of the rise has universal significance.

    For the February manufacturing industry PMI, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center senior statistics Zhao Qinghe interpretation that there are four characteristics: the manufacturing market demand recovery, production tends to be active; domestic and international demand has improved, import and export continue The new momentum to continue to force, equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industry continued good momentum of development. Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMI was 53.3% and 54.6%, respectively, higher than the manufacturing industry overall 1.7 and 3.0 percentage points, especially the equipment manufacturing industry PMI for nearly three years high; business confidence in the future development continued to increase. Production and business activities expected the index is 60%, rising for two consecutive months, and in a high boom range, the company is expected to continue to be optimistic about the market.

    In the sub-index, the production index and the new order index were 53.7% and 53.0%, respectively, compared with January rose 0.6 and 0.2 percentage points. The new export orders index and import index were 50.8% and 51.2%, respectively, higher than 0.5 percentage points in January, for four consecutive months in the expansion interval.

    The expansion of production from the micro-data can also see clues. "From the high-frequency indicators, 1 to 2 months of coal consumption growth of 14.8%, blast furnace operating rate increased by 28.5%." Shen Wanhong source chief macro analyst Li Huiyong is expected, low base stack of small cycle recovery will push up 1 ~ 2 Month industrial added value growth rate to 6.7%.

    The economic recovery situation, which has been boosted gradually since the second half of 2016, has also made the market optimistic about the overall trend in 2017. China People's University National Development and Strategic Research Institute recently released macroeconomic monthly data analysis report is expected in 2017 China's economic situation is stable, GDP growth is expected to reach 6.5% to 7%, CPI rose 2.5% to 3%. CICC even raised its forecast for the year's economic growth this year, from the original 6.7% to 6.8%.

    However, even if it is full of confidence in the steady growth of the economy throughout the year, in the majority of experts interviewed, the realization of the process will be "before the high and low" trend.

    The output index and the new order index rebounded in January from the PMI sub-item of the new China manufacturing sector in February, while the raw material inventory returned to the expansion interval, but the finished goods inventory continued. Down, manufacturers continue to maintain the sustainability of inventory remains to be seen. The input and output price indices remained high, but were further slower than in January. China's economy continues to pick up in February, but it is not yet possible to assert that the trend is forming, the second quarter or the critical window period.

     "4 quarter of last year's economic recovery momentum in the first half of this year will continue, but in the second half with the terminal demand weakened and re-inventory cycle near the end, superimposed the Fed once again raise interest rates near the second half of the economic growth momentum will be weakened. "For the economic trend of 2017, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities chief economist Zhang Jun on the" China Business "reporter said.

    Wang Jun, deputy director of the Information Center of China International Economic Exchange, told reporters that "the economy is expected to remain stable in the first half, which is visible from the latest PMI data, but the economy will face uncertainties at home and abroad in the second half of the year.

    For domestic and foreign uncertainty factors, according to him, the external factors mainly refers to Trump after taking office on the impact of China's foreign trade uncertainty; domestic factors is the real estate investment will continue to slow down or rebound, and local two proposed Whether the implementation of the investment plan is also uncertain.

    In accordance with established practice, in the national meeting held this month, the Prime Minister's government work report will put forward the annual economic growth target.

     "Steady" word to take the lead in reform speed

    The economy back to the steady recovery zone, but also for the reform to continue to make room for the advance.

    The 15th session of the Central Finance Leading Group has put forward four key areas of work: to produce capacity, to control financial risks, to guide the smooth development of real estate and establish long-term mechanism and revitalize the manufacturing industry. The scope is not a new area, but sort out, all reflect the requirements of further reform.

    To the production capacity will be strictly disposed of "zombie enterprises" referred to the core position, Tengnuo resources corresponding to "revitalize the manufacturing industry", the essence is to enhance the efficiency of the reform requirements; financial reform policy focus shifted to "risk", while return to the service economy The real estate positioning return to the "living" attribute, which will lead the development of long-term mechanism for real estate development.

    Taking into account the Central Financial Leadership Group meeting held in the two weeks before the two sessions of the country, the market expected these topics will also be the two sessions this year, an important focus of attention.

     "Macroeconomic policy point of view the year the tone is 'steady growth, control risk', neutral monetary policy with a proactive fiscal policy." Zhang Jun told reporters.

    Central Bank Research Bureau Xu Zhong recently announced that monetary policy in the intensity to be more neutral, it is necessary to maintain the basic stability of the total liquidity, but also have some pressure to oppose. Monetary policy in the implementation of more emphasis on the expected management.

    Wang Jun told reporters, "monetary policy from sound to stable neutrality, which shows that this year's monetary policy environment may be more tight than last year, but also means that investment demand may fall."

    But Zhang Jun also pointed out that the neutral monetary policy is more to promote the financial deleveraging, so the real economy will not feel the liquidity tightening; positive fiscal policy in addition to the efforts to increase financial spending, to promote PPP to encourage Private capital to participate in infrastructure investment will be one of the direction.

    In this regard, UBS China chief economist Wang Tao sent to reporters that the budget deficit rate may be from last year's 3% to 3.5%, but most of the fiscal policy support may continue through PPP and other quasi-financial channels. And the government is expected to continue to promote the local government debt replacement, the total size is likely to more than 5 trillion yuan.

     "Fiscal policy may be mainly in infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment in the field." Wang Jun also admitted that the financial force, after all, is an external factor, and will be subject to fiscal deficits and other constraints, the future remains to be internal factors - private investment Growth rate of recovery.

    Data show that in 2016, China's fixed asset investment growth rate of 8.1%, of which the growth rate of state-owned enterprises as high as 18.7%, private investment growth rate of only 3.2%.

    Deputy Director of the Central Committee of the People's Republic of China and Chairman of the Association of Private Investment Enterprises of Zhejiang Province Zhou Dewen was invited by the Central United Front Department in 1916 to carry out private investment research in Hubei. He told reporters that "to 'pretty girl first marry', is a good project to give priority to private capital to enter, so that they can get the sweetness, and gradually establish confidence, so that private enterprises can have a higher enthusiasm to invest in the project. "

     "Guide to private investment to participate in investment, and now there are at least six aspects can be improved: to improve the policy environment; to clarify the relationship between government and enterprises, to create pro-business, business and love business atmosphere, which makes private enterprises under the guidance of government investment; To strengthen the financial reform, to promote equity financing, and the development of the bond market, the development of the capital market, the development of the capital market, the development of the bond market, the development of the bond market, the development of the bond market, , To increase the proportion of direct financing, help enterprises to solve the problem of financing and financing expensive. "Zhou Dewen said.

    Zhang Hanyuan, chairman of the Standing Committee of the 11th CPPCC National Committee and Tongwei Group, told reporters. "We have already felt that all levels of government from the central to the local governments have begun to pay close attention to the economy. From the indicators of this year, If the tax burden of the enterprise can be further solved, we believe that this year 's economic situation will be optimistic, with the joint efforts of the government, society and enterprises.